Mullen beats drums of war and Iran threatens to burn Tel Aviv

By: Islam Al Ghamry

Drums of war beat heavily in many capitals like Washington, Tel Aviv and Tehran and their echo is heard in Damascus, Beirut Gaza  and Yemen.

As the situation in the Middle East is cloudy, Mullen's recent announcements made it worse.

We hear voices call for resuming the peace process in the region and see peace envoys shuttling to give it a kiss of life. On the other side, the smoke of war is rising and preparations for it are in progress.

Mullen threatens a potential strike on Iran:

Admiral Mike Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in an interview on NBC that the US military has a plan to attack Iran, although he thinks such a strike would have serious and unpredictable ripple effects. "I am extremely concerned about both of those outcomes... The military options have been on the table and remain on the table... I hope we don't get to that, but it's an important option and it's one that's well understood." he added.

Justifications of war:

Signs that preparations for a war are under way can be detected. Things are waiting for a "detonator" to give US and Israeli missiles the green light to attack. Such indications can be summed up as follows:

First:

The International Court will issue its final decision about the assassination of former PM, Rafiq Al Hariry, next month. Information leakage says that Hezbollah will be charged for it.

The Party said it will reject any judgment of this kind. Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah leader, stated any of the indicted will not be delivered because the court is "politicized" and its sentences are based on fake investigations and proofs.

This means an international decision may find Hezbollah guilty for the PM's murder which gives Israel a green light to a strike against the Party.

Second:

The United States is threatening the PA and its leader in Ramallah to accept direct negotiations with Israel next month. On the other hand, the Arab Peace Initiative follow-up committee has yielded to the pressures by urging President Abbas to join the talks, without being answered to its or his previous conditions.

Every time Washington and Tel Aviv prepare for war, the Egyptian-Israeli meetings are reactivated in Sharm el Sheikh and the Palestinian-Israeli peace talks are resumed with American promises to establish a Palestinian state in the near future.

Third:

A month ago, Obama held a friendly meeting with Benjamin Netanyahu in the White House where the former agreed with the latter to resume direct negotiations with the Palestinians.

This tells that the Iranian file became of the US administration's priorities and that high coordination between Israel and the United States is taking place.

It is worth mentioning that a previous meeting between the two sides was cold and rough.

Fourth:

An Israeli helicopter has crashed in Central Romania during "unknown" maneuvers. Romania has replaced Turkey, which refused to continue joint maneuvers with Israel after the massacre of the Freedom flotilla, among Speculations that Israel may use the lands of Romania and Georgia to launch its warplanes.

Fifth:

United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia have banned the corporate BlackBerry services for the devices messaging cannot be detected by authorities.

Such a ban may indicate future emergency preparations in case of war. Newspapers said there are secret Iranian cells among 400,000 Iranians live in the Gulf region.

Sixth:

King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and his Syrian counterpart, Bashar Al Assad, have surprisingly paid a joint visit to Beirut urging the rival factions not to resort to violence. This indicates there is an expected turmoil if Hezbollah is accused for Al Hariri murder.

Seventh:

Israel is completing its "Iron Dome" missile defense system to intercept rockets fired by Hezbollah. Talks about Syrian scuds sent to the party have preceded the action.

Eight:

Missiles are being launched anew, after a year and a half suspension, from Sinai and before from Gaza Strip against Israeli targets in Eilat and Sderot. This is a message to warn Israel that reactions may not come only from south Lebanon but from Gaza Strip in case Israel wages a new war.

Significance of Mullen's announcements:

Admiral Mullen was "wise" when he said he is concerned about the serious and unpredictable ripple effects of the war. Wisdom here means his knowledge about the tremendous human and material losses which his country suffered and is still suffering from in Iraq and Afghanistan.

War on Iran may cost the US much more damages if we consider the Iranian weapons.

In addition, Iranian Islamists, Sunnis or Shiites, fight furiously and never surrender, unlike the Arab regimes that raise a white flag on the very first Israeli attack.

War in Afghanistan has started nine years ago and in Iraq seven years ago. Hezbollah has resisted Israeli attacks for more than thirty four days and Hamas has done it for three weeks. The two resistance groups damaged the image of Israel presenting it as a racist country that commits war crimes and violates the international law.

Is it a psychological war?

Although some may see the previous announcement as a kind of a psychological war, some may believe otherwise. It is the drums of war beating in the region.

The first point of view depends on the fact that the US troops are still bleeding in Afghanistan and Iraq despite Obama's declaration about the American forces withdrawal by the end of august.

Add to this, the Turkish refusal to strike its neighbor Iran. And finally, the US economy hasn't recovered yet from the global financial crisis.

Iran threatens to burn Tel Aviv:

As soon as Mullen said the US military has a plan to attack Iran, the latter threatened to burn Israel. Moreover, it warned against a war that will destabilize the whole world.

First, the vice-chairman of the Iranian parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, Ismael Kauthari, stated that "if Iran is attacked, Israel will be wiped out from the map". In an interview on the Iranian channel "Al Alam", he said: "America is wrong when it thinks that by giving Israel a green light to strike Iran, it will achieve its purposes. Any attack against Iran will make them regret it."

Within the same context, Yadollah Gouani, head of the Political Department of the Iranian Guard Corps, warned:

"Military action against Iran will destabilize the whole world." Saying defending the Islamic Republic is not limited to its political or geographical border.

"The US and Israel don't need a green light to attack Iran. They are afraid from the Iranian military might… political geography and defense abilities of Iran plus the strong faith and will of the Iranians prevent the US and Israel from launching a strike against Iran… Iran will answer severely and they will regret it… the world situation will be unpredictable if this happens because the Islamic Republic reaction will not be limited to its political and geographical borders… world predominant powers will be jeopardized", he added.

Iranian foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki said:

"Potential war in the region waged by Israel or any other country will not be limited. Iran will support Syria and all countries of the Middle East should any such attack takes place. Iran is prepared for any military action against the region."

Iran's ambassador to the United Nations, Mohammad Khazaee, has warned Iran will fire up Israel should the US or Israel take military action against it for its controversial nuclear program. "In case Israel attacks Iran, we will fire Tel Aviv." he said. "The propaganda Israel is making is a proof it is terrified." he added.

The United States is softening its tone

The tone of the US is toned down after Mullen's strong words. Glyn Davies, the United States ambassador to the International Atomic Energy Agency, said to Al Sharq Al Awsat (the Middle East) newspaper about Mullen's statement:

"He was asked a direct question and wanted to give an honest answer about whether or not there is a military option on the table as well. And he said of course there is."

"We have a two-track policy: the first is to engage with Iran diplomatically in an effort to find long-term solutions to the international concern over its nuclear program. The second track is to bring Iran to account for its actions regarding its international commitments. We have these two tracks: incentives and pressure" He added. "This for us is the starting point if Iran does this in a clear and honest way and showed credibility in terms of fulfilling its commitments".

Here there is a question:

Will the coming months witness a military confrontation between the US and Iran?

If yes, will it be limited to the two countries only or will it turn to a regional war?

Although Iran's president calls not to stop negotiations, statements of US officials-especially Barak Obama- are escalating.

At the request of US president, the Unites States' ministry of defense is renewing its plans to take military action against Iran. Robert Gets, US defense minister, stated that a military action is present if diplomacy fails to solve the international dispute about the Iranian nuclear activities.

Israel is there

Unlike its war on Iraq, the US may seek help from Israel to join a strike on Iran.

Observers can see weird measures taken by Israel that tell there may be a war in the near future.

Israel has already tested the "Iron Dome" which intercepts short-distance rockets. It is worth mentioning that Iran has announced it owns missiles that can reach the heart of Israel.

Israel's Defense Ministry will next month begin distributing new gas masks to civilians.

The American economic situation

We cannot ignore the situation of the American economy. Can it afford a new war expenses, especially after its losses in Iraq and Afghanistan in addition to the late uncovered financial crisis?

Finally:

Introductions tell that the Middle East is about to witness a massive regional war. Mr. Mullen seems to know it. Thus, he sent sings of threat to Iran through his statement about a military option.

This was preceded by US secretary of state's speech in which she said attacking Israel means attacking the United States.

However, Iran is not the source of danger. It is unexpected for Iran to start the game. The opposite may happen. Israel may initiate it, with an American green light, especially if we put into consideration Israel's recent maneuver with Romania, which resembles Iran geographically.

Of course Iran will react. And the US will certainly support Israel. But the American administration tries to avoid that now because of what it suffers in Iraq and Afghanistan.

Translated by: Fatima suleiman

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